On the chart below you see a cross at 28 September. Because the market is overbought i'm not confident if we will break resistance. That point is a turning point. Maybe sooner or later. I think 27 September is the most important.
Sunday, 26 September 2010
Sensex
The Sensex is still at the 20.000 resistance end next week it will choose direction.
On the chart below you see a cross at 28 September. Because the market is overbought i'm not confident if we will break resistance. That point is a turning point. Maybe sooner or later. I think 27 September is the most important.
On the chart below you see a cross at 28 September. Because the market is overbought i'm not confident if we will break resistance. That point is a turning point. Maybe sooner or later. I think 27 September is the most important.
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
Valuations surge as Sensex crosses 20,000 milestone
Valuations surge as Sensex crosses 20,000 milestone
By fe Bureau
It took exactly 32 months and six days for the Sensex (^BSESN : 19941.72 -59.83) to reclaim the 20,000 peak. The September rally of over 10% in market indices has been among the fastest in recent times. On Tuesday, while the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 95.45 points up at 20,001.55, the broader 50-share Nifty (^NSEI : 5991 -18.05) gained 28.60 points to close at 6009.05. The last time Sensex and Nifty closed above 20,000 and 6,000 respectively was on January 15, 2008.
For markets, the journey from 20,000 to 20,000 has been quite a roller-coaster ride, with the Sensex plunging to 8,160-levels in March 2009, once the full impact of the post-Lehman crisis hit Indian markets. Early this year, the European debt crisis roiled global markets, impacting India as well. However, strong support from foreign institutional investors - who invested a record $16.2 billion this year - fuelled and sustained a rally in Indian stock markets.
Said Madhusudan Kela, chief investment strategist, Reliance Capital: "The market is likely to rise from current levels with the Indian long-term growth story remaining intact." However, he doesn't rule out a short-term correction, which could be used as an opportunity to re-enter the market. Motilal Oswal, CMD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services was optimistic: "The trend is robust; the undertone is strong. I expect the markets to scale a new high in the current fiscal," he said.
The market valuations do appear stretched, considering that the 2011-12 earnings have already been pencilled in. According to Bloomberg estimates, Sensex is quoting at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 times its 2012 earnings, which is equivalent to its historical one-forward averages. This, in other words, means that it is likely the market will remain sideways as the earnings get tracked avidly. In relative terms, other Asian markets are relatively underpriced. The next-year forward earnings are relatively lower for markets in South Korea (9.3), Taiwan (12.3), China (12.7), Indonesia (13.7) and Hong Kong (12.3).
There are concerns if strong FII inflows will continue. "Money is simply coming in from countries like the US into emerging markets like India. So long as the US economy doesn't recover considerably or collapses, these foreign funds have an attractive arbitrage opportunity if they put their mony into emerging markets," says Sashi Krishnan, chief investment officer, Bajaj (BAJAJAUTO.NS : 2101.05 0) Allianz Life Insurance. In the year so far, India has got roughly 45-50% of the overall Asia allocation ex-Japan and China. This is much higher than historical figures.
However, support from domestic institutions has been lacking. In the last 32 months, while FIIs have bought $21 billion on a net basis, mutual funds have actually sold $2 billion. "Selling has happened primarily because they feel the valuations look a bit stretched," says Krishnan. He adds that while domestic institutions usually counter-balance FII inflows, this time higher FII inflows have muted the influence of domestic institutions.
Though the market touched its 32-month high Tuesday, the rally was lacking in breadth, with only 14 of the Sensex stocks advancing. The overall market breadth was also negative, with more than two stocks declining for every advance.
Some technical analysts expect tough times ahead. "It's extremely unusual for the markets to continue these types of breakouts without some correction," said Brandon Wendell, senior instructor and trader mentor instructor at Online Trading Academy: "You can't keep climbing if everyone has already bought." He said he was concerned about major decline in small-cap stocks. "Usually, a divergence of small-caps signals a correction and even reversal of trend," he said.
The biggest Sensex gainer was TCS, which rose 4.63%, followed by IT peer Wipro (WIPRO.NS : 439.65 +4.35), which gained 3.41%. Tata Power advanced 3%, while Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS.BO : 1077.4 +21.2) gained 2%. The biggest index losers were ITC, which fell 2.18%, followed by JP Associates which declined 1.36%. DLF, Reliance Infra and Jindal Steel (JINDALSTE.NS : 704.85 +1.15) all fell over 1% each.
Source: http://in.biz.yahoo.com/100921/50/bawa42.html
By fe Bureau
It took exactly 32 months and six days for the Sensex (^BSESN : 19941.72 -59.83) to reclaim the 20,000 peak. The September rally of over 10% in market indices has been among the fastest in recent times. On Tuesday, while the 30-share BSE Sensex closed 95.45 points up at 20,001.55, the broader 50-share Nifty (^NSEI : 5991 -18.05) gained 28.60 points to close at 6009.05. The last time Sensex and Nifty closed above 20,000 and 6,000 respectively was on January 15, 2008.
For markets, the journey from 20,000 to 20,000 has been quite a roller-coaster ride, with the Sensex plunging to 8,160-levels in March 2009, once the full impact of the post-Lehman crisis hit Indian markets. Early this year, the European debt crisis roiled global markets, impacting India as well. However, strong support from foreign institutional investors - who invested a record $16.2 billion this year - fuelled and sustained a rally in Indian stock markets.
Said Madhusudan Kela, chief investment strategist, Reliance Capital: "The market is likely to rise from current levels with the Indian long-term growth story remaining intact." However, he doesn't rule out a short-term correction, which could be used as an opportunity to re-enter the market. Motilal Oswal, CMD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services was optimistic: "The trend is robust; the undertone is strong. I expect the markets to scale a new high in the current fiscal," he said.
The market valuations do appear stretched, considering that the 2011-12 earnings have already been pencilled in. According to Bloomberg estimates, Sensex is quoting at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 times its 2012 earnings, which is equivalent to its historical one-forward averages. This, in other words, means that it is likely the market will remain sideways as the earnings get tracked avidly. In relative terms, other Asian markets are relatively underpriced. The next-year forward earnings are relatively lower for markets in South Korea (9.3), Taiwan (12.3), China (12.7), Indonesia (13.7) and Hong Kong (12.3).
There are concerns if strong FII inflows will continue. "Money is simply coming in from countries like the US into emerging markets like India. So long as the US economy doesn't recover considerably or collapses, these foreign funds have an attractive arbitrage opportunity if they put their mony into emerging markets," says Sashi Krishnan, chief investment officer, Bajaj (BAJAJAUTO.NS : 2101.05 0) Allianz Life Insurance. In the year so far, India has got roughly 45-50% of the overall Asia allocation ex-Japan and China. This is much higher than historical figures.
However, support from domestic institutions has been lacking. In the last 32 months, while FIIs have bought $21 billion on a net basis, mutual funds have actually sold $2 billion. "Selling has happened primarily because they feel the valuations look a bit stretched," says Krishnan. He adds that while domestic institutions usually counter-balance FII inflows, this time higher FII inflows have muted the influence of domestic institutions.
Though the market touched its 32-month high Tuesday, the rally was lacking in breadth, with only 14 of the Sensex stocks advancing. The overall market breadth was also negative, with more than two stocks declining for every advance.
Some technical analysts expect tough times ahead. "It's extremely unusual for the markets to continue these types of breakouts without some correction," said Brandon Wendell, senior instructor and trader mentor instructor at Online Trading Academy: "You can't keep climbing if everyone has already bought." He said he was concerned about major decline in small-cap stocks. "Usually, a divergence of small-caps signals a correction and even reversal of trend," he said.
The biggest Sensex gainer was TCS, which rose 4.63%, followed by IT peer Wipro (WIPRO.NS : 439.65 +4.35), which gained 3.41%. Tata Power advanced 3%, while Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS.BO : 1077.4 +21.2) gained 2%. The biggest index losers were ITC, which fell 2.18%, followed by JP Associates which declined 1.36%. DLF, Reliance Infra and Jindal Steel (JINDALSTE.NS : 704.85 +1.15) all fell over 1% each.
Source: http://in.biz.yahoo.com/100921/50/bawa42.html
Sensex
We now at the psychological resistance of 20.000. Maybe we will stay there for some days, and than choose direction. But I think you must be careful for the correction.
Under 19.500 it is bearish and the market could correct. So stay alert, for the next move. We are near.
Monday, 20 September 2010
Four sectoral indices hit all-time highs
Mumbai: Four of the 13 sectoral indices on the Bombay Stock Exchange, including FMCG index, today hit all-time highs, amid the benchmark Sensex gaining over 310 points.
FMCG, Auto, Bankex and Healthcare indices saw a smart rally and touched their respective life-time highs during the day's session.
Spurred by a strong showing in the ITC counter, FMCG index emerged as the top performer, climbing as much as 124.79 points to close at 3,687.89.
In intra-day trading, the index had touched an all-time high of 3,707.13 as stocks of food-to-cigarette giant ITC surged nearly five per cent to Rs 176.60. Moreover, ITC contributed the most to the 30-share Sensex, which soared 311.35 points to a 32-month high of 19,906.10 points.
"FMGC companies are seeing an upsurge on the back of good monsoon and onset of festive season. Also, the firm broader market is also boosting the investor sentiment," Geojit BNP Paribas Research Head Alex Mathews said.
In line with the strong market sentiment, the bank index also witnessed a great trading day and rose over 200 points to its life-time high of 13,945.37 points.
Out of the 14 scrips constituting the Bankex, 11 ended the day on a positive note while three finished in red. Axis Bank rose 2.44 per cent while the private sector lender ICICI Bank surged by 1.15 per cent.
"Banking stocks are lifting the broader market for quite sometime, also the foreign institutional investors are pouring in large amount of money in the domestic market. Indian banks are in a better position than its peers globally," Mathews added.
The auto index also saw a stellar performance and reached its all-time high of 9,407.08 points in intra-day session.
Among the auto stocks, the maximum increase was witnessed in the two-wheeler major Hero Honda which shot up four per cent to end the day at Rs 1,819.80.
Further, healthcare index zoomed nearly 57 points in intra-day trading to touch 5,898.97
Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/four-sectoral-indices-hit-alltime-highs/684729/
FMCG, Auto, Bankex and Healthcare indices saw a smart rally and touched their respective life-time highs during the day's session.
Spurred by a strong showing in the ITC counter, FMCG index emerged as the top performer, climbing as much as 124.79 points to close at 3,687.89.
In intra-day trading, the index had touched an all-time high of 3,707.13 as stocks of food-to-cigarette giant ITC surged nearly five per cent to Rs 176.60. Moreover, ITC contributed the most to the 30-share Sensex, which soared 311.35 points to a 32-month high of 19,906.10 points.
"FMGC companies are seeing an upsurge on the back of good monsoon and onset of festive season. Also, the firm broader market is also boosting the investor sentiment," Geojit BNP Paribas Research Head Alex Mathews said.
In line with the strong market sentiment, the bank index also witnessed a great trading day and rose over 200 points to its life-time high of 13,945.37 points.
Out of the 14 scrips constituting the Bankex, 11 ended the day on a positive note while three finished in red. Axis Bank rose 2.44 per cent while the private sector lender ICICI Bank surged by 1.15 per cent.
"Banking stocks are lifting the broader market for quite sometime, also the foreign institutional investors are pouring in large amount of money in the domestic market. Indian banks are in a better position than its peers globally," Mathews added.
The auto index also saw a stellar performance and reached its all-time high of 9,407.08 points in intra-day session.
Among the auto stocks, the maximum increase was witnessed in the two-wheeler major Hero Honda which shot up four per cent to end the day at Rs 1,819.80.
Further, healthcare index zoomed nearly 57 points in intra-day trading to touch 5,898.97
Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/four-sectoral-indices-hit-alltime-highs/684729/
Obama's remarks may lead to protectionism: Mukherjee
NEW DELHI: India is concerned about the growing trend of protectionism and will raise the issue at the G20 meet next month, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Monday.
"Obama's statements may lead to protectionism. I am, of course, worried about the growing trend of protectionism. And G20 leaders should take note of it and when they meet in (South) Korea they will make it quite clear that the answer to the problems in international financial crisis does not lie in protectionism," Mukherjee told a television channel.
Mukherjee said he would raise the issue during the meetings of G20 finance ministers scheduled to be held next month.
"In itself the statement of Obama may not be protectionist but it may lead to protectionism and I will have the opportunity to share my views with finance ministers' meetings in G20," he said, adding there was no need to press the panic button on the issue.
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/Obamas-remarks-may-lead-to-protectionism-Mukherjee/articleshow/6594605.cms
"Obama's statements may lead to protectionism. I am, of course, worried about the growing trend of protectionism. And G20 leaders should take note of it and when they meet in (South) Korea they will make it quite clear that the answer to the problems in international financial crisis does not lie in protectionism," Mukherjee told a television channel.
Mukherjee said he would raise the issue during the meetings of G20 finance ministers scheduled to be held next month.
"In itself the statement of Obama may not be protectionist but it may lead to protectionism and I will have the opportunity to share my views with finance ministers' meetings in G20," he said, adding there was no need to press the panic button on the issue.
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/Obamas-remarks-may-lead-to-protectionism-Mukherjee/articleshow/6594605.cms
Sunday, 19 September 2010
Sensex
This week is important for the Sensex. On the chart you can see a great rally from 25 August till 17 September, but the market is ready for a correction. Be ware for a correction till 27 September. I think we don't go higher than 20.000.
We can correct till 18.000 and the market is still bullish. Next weeks will be important for the direction of next months.
Sensex ends at a fresh 32-mth high
Mumbai: The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex surged by 177 points to touch a fresh 32-month high as investors shrugged off the impact of Thursday's rate hike by the RBI amid a firming global trend.
With a seven-day rally broken by an 84 point decline in Thursday's choppy session, the Sensex bounced back today by adding 177.26 points to 19,594.75, a level last seen in January, 2008.
Similarly, the broad-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty rose by 56.25 points to 5,884.95, within sight of the 5,900-mark.
Marketmen said that reports of higher advance taxes paid by corporates helped investors overlook the Reserve Bank of India's hike of borrowing and lending rates on Thursday to tighten the monetary policy, making loans more expensive.
A firming trend in the Asian region and a higher opening in Europe further drove the market upward.
The most valuable entity on the Sensex, Reliance Industries, rose by Rs 25.85 to Rs 1,026.75 on reports that the energy major is in talks with US-based Chesapeake Energy to buy a stake in the Eagle Ford shale gas project.
The second most valuable firm by weightage, Infosys Technologies, led the gains in the software export sector by gaining Rs 6.30 to Rs 2,974.10.
The two stocks together carry nearly 23 per cent weightage on the market.
The consumer durable sector index gained the most by rising 2.10 per cent to 6,154.17 as stocks of Titan, Whirlpool and VIP industries recorded handsome gains.
The healthcare sector index was the second-best performer by rising 2.05 per cent to 5,842.24 as Elder Pharmaceuticals shot up by Rs 20.95 to Rs 434.95 following UK-based NeutraHealth's approval of a takeover offer by the Indian drug-maker.
With buying activity spread over a wide front, the mid-cap sector index rose by 1.43 per cent to 8,104.28 and the small-cap index by 0.93 per cent to 10,238.91.
Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/sensex-ends-at-a-fresh-32mth-high/682803/
With a seven-day rally broken by an 84 point decline in Thursday's choppy session, the Sensex bounced back today by adding 177.26 points to 19,594.75, a level last seen in January, 2008.
Similarly, the broad-based National Stock Exchange index Nifty rose by 56.25 points to 5,884.95, within sight of the 5,900-mark.
Marketmen said that reports of higher advance taxes paid by corporates helped investors overlook the Reserve Bank of India's hike of borrowing and lending rates on Thursday to tighten the monetary policy, making loans more expensive.
A firming trend in the Asian region and a higher opening in Europe further drove the market upward.
The most valuable entity on the Sensex, Reliance Industries, rose by Rs 25.85 to Rs 1,026.75 on reports that the energy major is in talks with US-based Chesapeake Energy to buy a stake in the Eagle Ford shale gas project.
The second most valuable firm by weightage, Infosys Technologies, led the gains in the software export sector by gaining Rs 6.30 to Rs 2,974.10.
The two stocks together carry nearly 23 per cent weightage on the market.
The consumer durable sector index gained the most by rising 2.10 per cent to 6,154.17 as stocks of Titan, Whirlpool and VIP industries recorded handsome gains.
The healthcare sector index was the second-best performer by rising 2.05 per cent to 5,842.24 as Elder Pharmaceuticals shot up by Rs 20.95 to Rs 434.95 following UK-based NeutraHealth's approval of a takeover offer by the Indian drug-maker.
With buying activity spread over a wide front, the mid-cap sector index rose by 1.43 per cent to 8,104.28 and the small-cap index by 0.93 per cent to 10,238.91.
Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/sensex-ends-at-a-fresh-32mth-high/682803/
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